Match Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Busch Stadium for a Thursday afternoon makeup game against the St. Louis Cardinals. First pitch is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET, with Brandon Pfaadt expected to start for Arizona against Michael McGreevy for St. Louis. The game was originally postponed on June 25 and has been rescheduled as a standalone matchup.
Arizona enters at 53–49, while St. Louis sits at 52–49, placing the teams in nearly identical positions as they continue fighting to remain involved in the National League playoff race.
McGreevy owns the stronger ERA, but Arizona has the more appealing overall offensive ceiling and enters with a starter who has consistently received enough support to win. Pfaadt’s 4–1 record suggests the Diamondbacks have been successful in his outings, even when he has not completely shut down opposing lineups.
This game could remain close into the middle innings, but Arizona’s ability to produce extra-base hits and create scoring opportunities throughout its order makes the Diamondbacks the preferred side.
Arizona Diamondbacks Analysis
Brandon Pfaadt is scheduled to start for Arizona. The right-hander enters with a 4–1 record, 4.58 ERA and 44 strikeouts. Those numbers show that Pfaadt has not been dominant, but he has generally kept the Diamondbacks competitive and avoided allowing games to get completely out of control.
His main responsibility will be limiting traffic on the bases. St. Louis does not always overwhelm opponents with power, but the Cardinals can manufacture runs when they string together singles, walks and productive outs. Pfaadt must work ahead in counts and avoid giving St. Louis free opportunities.
Arizona’s lineup gives him room to survive a few mistakes. The Diamondbacks have several hitters capable of changing the game with one swing, and their speed can also pressure opposing defenses. Corbin Carroll remains one of the most dangerous players in the lineup because of his combination of power, contact ability and baserunning.
Arizona is also coming off a competitive series against the Athletics in which the Diamondbacks demonstrated their ability to respond late. They earned a 6–5 extra-inning victory Tuesday after tying the game in the bottom of the tenth and producing the winning hit moments later.
That ability to remain composed in close games should matter here. Arizona does not need Pfaadt to throw seven scoreless innings. If he can provide five or six competitive frames, the lineup should have enough opportunities to give the bullpen a lead.
St. Louis Cardinals Analysis
Michael McGreevy is expected to start for St. Louis. He enters with a 4–7 record, 2.92 ERA and 71 strikeouts, giving the Cardinals the statistical edge in the starting-pitching matchup.
McGreevy’s ERA shows that he has been effective at limiting damage, but his losing record also suggests the Cardinals have not always provided enough run support during his starts. That could become important against an Arizona team capable of creating pressure through multiple parts of the batting order.
St. Louis enters after avoiding a sweep against the Angels with a 1–0 victory Wednesday. JJ Wetherholt supplied the only run with a solo home run, while Hunter Dobbins and the Cardinals bullpen combined for the shutout. However, St. Louis recorded only three hits in the game, highlighting the inconsistency that continues to affect its offense.
The Cardinals will need more production Thursday. Depending on another near-perfect pitching performance is risky against Arizona, especially if the Diamondbacks can force McGreevy to work through extended innings.
St. Louis has home-field advantage and the stronger starter by ERA, but the offense may struggle to match Arizona if the game becomes a back-and-forth scoring contest.
Why We Like This Pick
The starting-pitching numbers favour St. Louis, but the complete matchup still points toward Arizona.
The Diamondbacks have the slightly stronger record, the more dangerous offensive upside and a starter with a 4–1 record. Pfaadt does not need to outpitch McGreevy by a wide margin. He only needs to keep Arizona within reach until the lineup begins creating opportunities.
St. Louis has struggled to consistently produce runs and needed a solo homer to escape Wednesday with a 1–0 victory. Arizona should present a more difficult challenge because of its ability to score through power, speed and pressure on the bases.
Final Prediction
McGreevy should keep the Cardinals competitive, and this game may remain tight through the first five innings. However, Arizona has the deeper offensive profile and should be better equipped if the matchup turns into a bullpen battle.
Look for the Diamondbacks to stay patient against McGreevy, create scoring opportunities in the middle innings and eventually take advantage of the St. Louis relief staff. Pfaadt may allow a few runs, but Arizona should provide enough support to earn the road victory.
Final Score Prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Cardinals 3
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline