Match Preview
The Chicago Cubs travel to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, July 24, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with left-hander Matthew Boyd expected to start for Chicago against Pittsburgh right-hander Jared Jones.
Chicago enters the matchup with a 57-45 record after suffering a 5-1 loss against the Detroit Tigers in its previous game. The Cubs remain above .500 and firmly involved in the National League playoff race, but they will need a strong response after an underwhelming offensive performance.
Pittsburgh has shown that it can be competitive, especially at home, and Jones has recently pitched well. However, Chicago possesses the deeper lineup and should have enough offensive firepower to support Boyd.
The Pirates may keep this game close through the early innings, but the Cubs are the more trustworthy team over a complete nine-inning matchup.
Chicago Cubs Analysis
Boyd enters Friday with a 6-1 record and has delivered a dependable season for the Cubs. MLB’s game preview lists his ERA at 2.57, although another probable-pitcher listing showed a 4.15 mark, suggesting that one of the available listings may not have been fully updated. Regardless of the exact current figure, Boyd’s strong win-loss record and veteran experience give Chicago a stable starting option.
The left-hander does not need to overpower every Pittsburgh hitter. His primary objective will be limiting walks, keeping runners off base ahead of the Pirates’ strongest bats and preventing Pittsburgh from creating a crooked-number inning.
Chicago’s offence provides the larger reason to back the Cubs.
The Cubs have a deeper collection of hitters and are capable of producing runs through more than one part of the lineup. They can generate power, create traffic on the bases and force opposing pitchers to work through difficult at-bats.
After scoring only once against Detroit, Chicago should enter Friday motivated to deliver a stronger performance. A lineup with playoff aspirations cannot afford to remain quiet against teams it is expected to beat.
The Cubs have also performed reasonably well away from home, entering Friday with a 27-23 road record. That reduces some of the concern that normally accompanies backing a road favourite or short-priced road team.
If Boyd provides five or six competitive innings, Chicago should be in position to turn the game over to its bullpen with either a lead or a manageable deficit.
Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
The Pirates will start Jared Jones, who enters the game with a 2-1 record, a 4.05 ERA and 48 strikeouts. Jones has been particularly sharp across his previous two starts, allowing only one earned run over 11 innings while recording 17 strikeouts.
That recent form makes Pittsburgh dangerous.
Jones possesses the ability to miss bats and could frustrate Chicago during the opening portion of the game. The Cubs must avoid expanding the strike zone and allowing him to settle into an easy rhythm.
Pittsburgh has also been respectable when listed as the favourite, winning 31 of 52 such games this season. The Pirates have additionally won 20 of their 45 games as an underdog, demonstrating that they cannot simply be dismissed based on their overall reputation.
The concern is whether Pittsburgh can produce enough offence if Jones allows three or four runs.
The Pirates are not always dependable when required to win a higher-scoring game. Their best path is for Jones to dominate, protect an early lead and hand the game to the bullpen.
If Chicago can raise his pitch count and force Pittsburgh to use multiple relievers, the advantage should shift toward the Cubs.
Why We Like This Pick
This is not necessarily an easy matchup for Chicago because Jones enters in excellent form. However, the Cubs offer the stronger overall lineup and the more proven collection of offensive threats.
Boyd also gives Chicago a reliable starting pitcher who should prevent Pittsburgh from building an early lead. Even if Jones performs well, the Cubs should remain within striking distance until they can reach the Pirates bullpen.
Chicago has won 15 of the 28 games in which it was listed as the underdog this season, a success rate above 53 percent. That indicates the Cubs have consistently competed well in matchups where the betting market did not make them the clear favourite.
The pitching matchup could keep the score low initially, but Chicago’s lineup depth should become more influential as the game progresses.
Final Prediction
Expect Jones to challenge the Cubs early and keep Pittsburgh competitive through the first several innings. Chicago should eventually create scoring opportunities by working deep counts and applying pressure against the Pirates bullpen.
Boyd should deliver a steady outing, while the Cubs offence provides enough late support to secure the road victory.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline