Match Preview
The Cincinnati Reds visit Busch Stadium to open a National League Central series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday, July 24, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati is expected to start right-hander Rhett Lowder, while St. Louis counters with right-hander Dustin May. Lowder enters the matchup with a 3-7 record, a 5.75 ERA and 61 strikeouts. May carries a 5-7 record, a 4.78 ERA and 95 strikeouts into the series opener.
The Cardinals enter Friday at 52-49, while the Reds sit at 47-54. St. Louis therefore holds the better overall record and will also have home-field advantage at Busch Stadium.
Neither starting pitcher has produced dominant season-long numbers, so this matchup may come down to which lineup capitalizes more effectively on mistakes. Lowder’s elevated ERA gives St. Louis the clearest offensive opportunity, while May’s stronger strikeout total provides the Cardinals with the more dependable starting option.
The Reds are capable of producing runs, but the Cardinals have the better record, the more favourable pitching matchup and the advantage of playing at home. St. Louis is the preferred moneyline selection.
Cincinnati Reds Analysis
Lowder enters Friday needing a strong response after an inconsistent season.
His 5.75 ERA shows that opposing teams have regularly generated scoring opportunities against him. Although his 61 strikeouts demonstrate some ability to miss bats, he has not consistently prevented damaging contact or limited opponents once runners reach base.
That creates a difficult assignment against a St. Louis lineup that should be confident at home. Lowder must avoid walks, work ahead in counts and keep the Cardinals from extending innings through consecutive hits.
The Reds recently produced an encouraging victory, but their overall record remains seven games below .500. Cincinnati has shown enough offensive upside to compete on any given night, yet the team has struggled to pair timely hitting with dependable run prevention for long stretches.
Cincinnati’s best path to victory involves attacking May early. The Cardinals starter has an ERA approaching 5.00, so the Reds should receive opportunities if they remain patient and force him to pitch from behind in counts.
The Reds cannot afford to fall into a significant early deficit. Their bullpen would then be forced to cover additional innings while the offence attempts to chase the game on the road.
St. Louis Cardinals Analysis
May gives St. Louis the more trustworthy starting pitcher in Friday’s matchup.
His 4.78 ERA is not outstanding, but it is nearly a full run better than Lowder’s mark. May has also recorded 95 strikeouts, giving him a stronger ability to escape difficult situations without relying entirely on his defence.
The Cardinals do not need May to deliver a dominant shutout. Five or six competitive innings should be enough if the offence takes advantage of Lowder’s struggles.
St. Louis enters Friday after earning a narrow 1-0 victory behind a home run from JJ Wetherholt. That result showed the Cardinals can win a low-scoring game even when their offence does not produce throughout the lineup.
Friday’s matchup should offer more scoring opportunities. Lowder’s elevated ERA makes him vulnerable if the Cardinals remain disciplined and avoid chasing pitches outside the strike zone.
St. Louis should focus on creating traffic early and forcing Cincinnati to turn to its bullpen before the later innings. The Cardinals have the stronger overall record and should be comfortable playing a close divisional matchup at Busch Stadium.
Why We Like This Pick
The starting pitchers have both struggled at times, but St. Louis holds the advantage in nearly every other important category.
The Cardinals have the better overall record, home-field advantage and the starter with the lower ERA and higher strikeout total. Cincinnati’s 47-54 record makes the Reds difficult to trust on the road, particularly with Lowder carrying a 5.75 ERA.
The Reds are capable of keeping this competitive because May has also allowed his share of runs. However, St. Louis should receive more consistent scoring opportunities against Lowder and the Cincinnati bullpen.
This is not necessarily a matchup in which the Cardinals dominate from the opening pitch. The game could remain close into the middle innings before St. Louis gradually takes control.
The moneyline is the preferred approach because both starters’ elevated ERAs create the possibility of a higher-scoring and relatively unpredictable game.
Final Prediction
Expect both teams to place runners on base, but St. Louis should produce the more effective at-bats with runners in scoring position.
May’s stronger strikeout ability should help him limit Cincinnati’s biggest innings, while the Cardinals take advantage of Lowder’s command and run-prevention issues.
Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 6, Cincinnati Reds 4
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline