Match Preview
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets complete their three-game National League series at Citi Field on Sunday, July 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles is expected to start right-hander Emmet Sheehan, while New York counters with right-hander Freddy Peralta. Sheehan enters with a 5.13 ERA, while Peralta carries a similar 5.01 mark into the series finale. Both pitchers have performed better according to expected ERA than their traditional results suggest, but neither has provided dependable run prevention recently.
The Dodgers have already won the opening two games of the series. Los Angeles took Friday’s opener 4-2 before earning a 4-3 victory Saturday. Kyle Tucker homered for the second consecutive night, Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed one run over six innings and the Dodgers held off a late New York rally to record their fourth straight victory.
New York will also be without Juan Soto, who was placed on the injured list with a left calf strain. Losing the Mets’ most dangerous offensive player further weakens a lineup that has already struggled to produce consistently.
With the deeper lineup, stronger recent form and an opportunity to complete the sweep, Los Angeles is the preferred moneyline selection.
Los Angeles Dodgers Analysis
Sheehan represents the largest concern for anyone backing the Dodgers.
The right-hander is coming off a difficult outing against Philadelphia in which he surrendered six runs. His 5.13 ERA indicates that opposing teams have regularly created scoring opportunities against him, and New York should be motivated to attack early while attempting to avoid the sweep.
Sheehan does not need to dominate for Los Angeles to win. Five competitive innings with limited walks should be enough if the Dodgers continue producing offensively.
Los Angeles has scored four runs in each of the first two games while receiving contributions from several parts of the lineup. Tucker homered again Saturday, Freddie Freeman recorded three singles and Andy Pages drove in two runs. The Dodgers also took advantage of defensive mistakes and remained composed when New York threatened late.
That lineup depth should be extremely valuable against Peralta.
The Mets starter has struggled since arriving in New York and owns one of the higher ERAs among qualified pitchers. His command, deception and ability to miss bats have all declined, while opposing hitters have produced against each of his primary pitches.
The Dodgers should remain patient and force Peralta into deep counts. Los Angeles owns one of baseball’s strongest walk rates and has consistently punished pitchers who struggle to locate.
Shohei Ohtani, Freeman, Tucker and Pages give Los Angeles several different ways to score. Even if Peralta works through the opening innings successfully, the Dodgers should continue applying pressure until New York turns the game over to its bullpen.
New York Mets Analysis
Peralta gives the Mets an experienced starter, but his recent form makes him difficult to trust.
The right-hander enters with a 5.01 ERA and allowed seven runs during his previous outing against Milwaukee. His underlying numbers suggest that he has pitched somewhat better than the final results, but he now faces one of baseball’s deepest and most disciplined lineups.
Peralta must avoid walks and keep Ohtani, Freeman and Tucker from batting with multiple runners on base. Los Angeles can quickly turn one mistake into a multi-run inning, especially if New York gives away additional outs defensively.
The Mets committed costly mistakes Saturday. A fielding error and passed ball contributed to a three-run Dodgers inning, while New York went 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded 10 runners.
Those missed opportunities have become especially damaging with Soto unavailable. He was placed on the injured list after aggravating his left calf, removing New York’s only 2026 All-Star and one of the team’s few consistently productive hitters.
Bo Bichette, Tyrone Taylor, Luis Robert Jr. and Francisco Alvarez must provide enough offence to pressure Sheehan. The matchup against a starter with an ERA above 5.00 gives New York a realistic opportunity, but the lineup must be far more efficient with runners on base.
The Mets have remained competitive in both games, yet their weaker depth and defensive mistakes have repeatedly allowed Los Angeles to escape.
Why We Like This Pick
The starting-pitching matchup is relatively even, so this selection comes down to lineup quality, recent form and overall reliability.
Los Angeles holds the advantage in each category.
The Dodgers have won four consecutive games and are positioned to complete the sweep. Their offence has produced enough in both games, while their bullpen successfully protected narrow late leads. New York has remained close but has failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities and will now play without Soto.
Sheehan’s recent struggles create risk, and New York could score early against him. However, Peralta’s 5.01 ERA gives Los Angeles an equally favourable offensive opportunity.
The difference is that the Dodgers have far more dependable hitters throughout the order. They are better equipped to win a high-scoring game if neither starter performs well.
The moneyline is preferred over the run line because the first two games have both been decided by two runs or fewer.
Final Prediction
Expect both teams to generate scoring opportunities against starters who have struggled recently.
New York should produce more offence than it did during portions of the first two games, but the Mets’ absence of Soto and continued inconsistency with runners in scoring position remain major concerns.
The Dodgers’ deeper lineup should eventually take control against Peralta and the New York bullpen. Los Angeles completes the road sweep and extends its winning streak.
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 6, New York Mets 4
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline