Match Preview
The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins complete their three-game series at loanDepot park on Sunday, July 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET.
San Diego is expected to start right-hander Walker Buehler, who enters the series finale with a 6-5 record, a 5.23 ERA and 84 strikeouts. Miami is expected to counter with right-hander Janson Junk.
The Padres have already secured the series after winning the first two games. San Diego earned a 4-2 victory Friday before pulling away for a 7-2 win Saturday. Ty France drove in three runs in the second game, while Jackson Merrill recorded three hits and scored twice.
Saturday’s loss extended Miami’s losing streak to 11 consecutive games, matching the longest skid in franchise history. The Marlins have remained competitive during portions of the series, but they have struggled to produce timely offence or prevent opponents from adding late insurance runs.
Buehler’s elevated ERA creates some risk, but San Diego enters with superior momentum, stronger late-game pitching and an opportunity to complete the road sweep.
The Padres are the preferred moneyline selection.
San Diego Padres Analysis
San Diego’s offence delivered a much more complete performance Saturday than it did in the opener.
The Padres collected 11 hits and gradually created separation after taking an early lead. France finished with three RBIs, Merrill went 3-for-4 with two doubles and Jake Cronenworth reached base three times while adding an RBI.
That balanced production is encouraging because San Diego did not depend entirely on Manny Machado or Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres received contributions throughout the lineup and continued adding runs against Miami’s bullpen during the later innings.
Buehler is the primary concern Sunday.
His 5.23 ERA indicates that opposing teams have consistently created scoring opportunities against him. He must limit walks and avoid allowing Miami to establish confidence with an early multi-run inning.
San Diego does not need Buehler to deliver seven scoreless innings. Five competitive frames should be enough if the offence continues producing and the Padres can turn the game over to their stronger relief options.
The bullpen has already played an important role in this series. Adrian Morejon earned Friday’s victory before Mason Miller recorded his 26th save, while JP Sears provided 3⅓ scoreless relief innings Saturday after Randy Vásquez worked as the opener.
That flexibility gives San Diego several ways to manage the finale if Buehler encounters trouble.
Miami Marlins Analysis
Miami desperately needs a positive result after losing 11 consecutive games.
The Marlins have not been completely overmatched during the series. They recorded nine hits Friday and briefly kept Saturday’s game close before San Diego added runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.
Esteury Ruiz recorded two hits and scored twice Saturday, giving Miami some pressure near the top of the lineup. However, a costly baserunning mistake in the eighth inning ended a potential rally and represented another example of the poor execution that often accompanies a lengthy losing streak.
Junk must keep the Padres from establishing another early advantage. San Diego’s hitters are seeing the ball well, and Miami cannot afford to expose its bullpen to several innings while trailing.
The Marlins’ clearest path to victory involves attacking Buehler immediately. His elevated ERA gives Miami a realistic opportunity to score, particularly if the lineup remains patient and forces him to pitch from behind in counts.
Miami must also convert its baserunners more efficiently. Collecting hits has not been enough because the Marlins have repeatedly failed to deliver in the game’s most important situations.
Why We Like This Pick
San Diego has won both games of the series and enters Sunday with significantly better momentum.
The Padres have demonstrated two different paths to victory. They won a close game Friday through late power and bullpen execution before producing a more comfortable five-run victory Saturday.
Buehler’s season numbers prevent this from being one of Sunday’s safest selections. Miami should receive opportunities to score and could avoid the sweep if San Diego’s starter struggles early.
However, the Marlins are difficult to support during an 11-game losing streak. Their late-game pitching, situational hitting and baserunning have all contributed to the skid.
San Diego owns the deeper lineup and has been far more dependable once the game reaches the later innings. The Padres moneyline is preferred over the run line because Buehler’s inconsistency could keep Miami close.
Final Prediction
Expect Miami to generate some early offence against Buehler, but San Diego should respond with consistent pressure against Junk and the Marlins bullpen.
The Padres’ lineup depth and stronger late-game pitching should become decisive as San Diego completes the three-game sweep.
Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres 6, Miami Marlins 4
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline