Match Preview
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals complete their three-game National League Central series at Busch Stadium on Sunday, July 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati is expected to start left-hander Andrew Abbott, while St. Louis counters with right-hander Kyle Leahy. Abbott enters with a 5-6 record, a 3.89 ERA and 90 strikeouts. Leahy carries a 7-4 record, a slightly better 3.59 ERA and 79 strikeouts into the series finale.
The teams have split the opening two games. Cincinnati won Friday’s opener 4-2 before St. Louis responded with a convincing 7-0 victory Saturday. Andre Pallante allowed only two hits over seven scoreless innings, while the Cardinals broke the game open with six runs in the sixth.
Sunday’s starting matchup is close, but St. Louis has home-field advantage, the starter with the slightly lower ERA and strong momentum after Saturday’s shutout victory.
The Cardinals are the preferred moneyline selection.
Cincinnati Reds Analysis
Abbott gives Cincinnati a legitimate opportunity to win the rubber match.
The left-hander has delivered a respectable season and enters with a 3.89 ERA. His ability to change speeds and keep hitters from consistently producing hard contact could make things difficult for a St. Louis lineup that was quiet during Friday’s opener.
Abbott must control the top of the Cardinals order and prevent St. Louis from creating another extended inning. Saturday’s game remained close through five frames before the Reds allowed six runs during a disastrous sixth inning.
Cincinnati’s defence also must be cleaner. Elly De La Cruz committed three errors Saturday, including multiple mistakes during the opening inning. Those extra opportunities placed additional pressure on Hunter Greene and contributed to Cincinnati falling behind.
The Reds’ offence must respond after being shut out. Cincinnati recorded only two hits against Pallante and failed to create consistent pressure throughout the game.
De La Cruz, Eugenio Suárez and Sal Stewart give the Reds enough power and athleticism to challenge Leahy. However, Cincinnati cannot depend entirely on home runs. The lineup must reach base, apply pressure and force St. Louis to pitch from the stretch.
St. Louis Cardinals Analysis
Leahy gives the Cardinals a dependable option for the series finale.
His 3.59 ERA is slightly better than Abbott’s mark, while his 7-4 record shows that St. Louis has regularly converted his starts into victories. Leahy does not need to overpower Cincinnati. Five or six competitive innings should be enough if he avoids walks and keeps De La Cruz from creating damage on the bases.
St. Louis should also enter with considerable offensive confidence after Saturday’s performance.
Alec Burleson collected three hits, while Ivan Herrera, Blaze Jordan and Bryan Torres helped turn a one-run game into a comfortable victory. The Cardinals showed patience against Greene and punished him once they began seeing him for the third time.
That approach will again be important against Abbott. The Reds left-hander is capable of working through quick innings when opponents become overly aggressive.
St. Louis should focus on extending at-bats, creating traffic and forcing Abbott to throw strikes. The Cardinals have now won five of their seven meetings with Cincinnati this season, suggesting they have generally matched up well with their divisional rival.
Why We Like This Pick
The starting-pitching matchup is close, but St. Louis holds several smaller advantages that collectively support the Cardinals.
Leahy owns the slightly lower ERA and better win-loss record. St. Louis is also playing at home and enters with momentum after Saturday’s 7-0 victory.
Cincinnati can absolutely make this competitive behind Abbott. The left-hander has pitched well enough to keep the score close, and the Reds have dangerous hitters capable of punishing Leahy’s mistakes.
However, St. Louis has shown better overall execution during the series. The Cardinals responded from Friday’s loss with strong pitching, patient at-bats and a decisive offensive inning.
The moneyline is preferred over the run line because Abbott’s quality could keep the final margin narrow.
Final Prediction
Expect Abbott and Leahy to deliver competitive starts, with scoring opportunities limited during the opening innings.
Cincinnati should perform much better offensively than it did Saturday, but St. Louis’ home-field advantage and deeper recent production should become decisive once the game reaches the bullpens.
Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 5, Cincinnati Reds 3
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline