Match Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates continue their important National League series at PNC Park on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Arizona is expected to start right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, while Pittsburgh counters with right-hander Bubba Chandler.
Pittsburgh claimed Monday’s opener 3-2 in 10 innings. Brandon Lowe delivered the game-winning RBI single after Bryan Reynolds tied the contest with an eighth-inning double. Arizona had opportunities to extend its lead and later score in extra innings but could not produce the decisive hit.
That loss was Arizona’s third consecutive defeat and moved Pittsburgh level with the Diamondbacks in the race for the final National League wild-card position. The pressure surrounding this series is therefore significant for both clubs.
Pfaadt has not been completely consistent, but Arizona possesses the deeper offensive lineup and should have a strong opportunity to respond against Chandler. The Pirates starter has promising strikeout ability, yet his command and efficiency have created problems during portions of the season.
Arizona is the preferred moneyline selection.
Arizona Diamondbacks Analysis
The Diamondbacks must produce more effectively with runners in scoring position than they did Monday.
Arizona scored both of its runs on a sixth-inning double by Max Kepler but failed to capitalize on several additional opportunities. The Diamondbacks placed two runners in scoring position during the 10th inning before Pittsburgh escaped without allowing a run.
That lack of execution ultimately decided the game.
Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and the top of Arizona’s order give the Diamondbacks enough talent to create consistent pressure. Carroll brings speed and extra-base potential, while Marte can control an at-bat and punish pitches left over the middle of the plate.
Arizona’s approach against Chandler should be patient. The young right-hander has the raw ability to dominate when he works ahead, but forcing him into long counts can expose his inconsistency and increase the likelihood of early bullpen usage.
Pfaadt must keep Pittsburgh from establishing another late-inning advantage. Brandon Lowe collected three hits Monday and drove in two of Pittsburgh’s three runs, while Reynolds delivered the game-tying hit. Those hitters cannot be allowed to repeatedly bat with runners aboard.
Pfaadt does not need to throw a shutout. If he provides five or six competitive innings and limits the Pirates to three runs or fewer, Arizona’s offence should have a realistic chance to earn the road victory.
Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
The Pirates showed impressive resilience in Monday’s opener.
Pittsburgh trailed 2-0 after the sixth inning but continued creating pressure. Reynolds cut through Arizona’s advantage with his eighth-inning RBI double before Lowe completed the comeback in the 10th.
That victory demonstrated why Pittsburgh is dangerous at home. The Pirates may not always produce large offensive totals, but they can remain competitive through pitching and timely hitting.
Chandler provides significant upside Tuesday. He owns a powerful arsenal and can generate strikeouts when his command is sharp. His challenge will be controlling Arizona’s experienced top hitters and avoiding unnecessary walks.
The Pirates cannot assume another low-scoring game will automatically favour them. Arizona has enough power to quickly turn a close matchup around, particularly if Chandler falls behind and is forced to throw fastballs in predictable counts.
Pittsburgh’s bullpen also worked through a tense extra-inning finish Monday. Mason Montgomery escaped Arizona’s 10th-inning threat before earning the victory. The Pirates will want Chandler to work deep enough to avoid another demanding night for their relief staff.
The status of Esmerlyn Valdez is another concern after he left Monday’s game when he was hit on the hand by a pitch. His availability could affect the depth of Pittsburgh’s lineup Tuesday.
Why We Like This Pick
Arizona has the stronger offensive ceiling and should enter Tuesday with considerable urgency.
The Diamondbacks let Monday’s opener slip away despite carrying a lead into the later innings. They also failed to score with two runners in scoring position during extra innings. Those missed opportunities make Arizona a strong bounce-back candidate.
Pfaadt is not an overwhelming pitching advantage, and Chandler has enough talent to control the game if his command is working. However, the Diamondbacks have the more established lineup and several hitters capable of producing against both right-handed pitching and Pittsburgh’s bullpen.
Arizona should also benefit from having already seen the Pirates’ primary relief options during Monday’s extra-inning game.
The moneyline is preferred over the run line because Pittsburgh has shown that it can keep games close at PNC Park. This matchup may remain within one or two runs until the final innings.
Final Prediction
Expect Chandler to generate several strikeouts and give Pittsburgh a competitive start. Arizona should respond with a more disciplined offensive performance after wasting important scoring opportunities Monday.
Pfaadt keeps the Pirates under control through the middle innings, while the Diamondbacks finally produce the timely hit they were missing in the opener.
Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline