Match Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals complete their three-game series at Nationals Park on Sunday, July 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET.
Arizona is expected to start rookie left-hander Kohl Drake, while Washington counters with veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas. Drake enters with a 1.80 ERA and five strikeouts in limited major-league action. Mikolas carries a 3-7 record, a 5.60 ERA and 51 strikeouts into the series finale.
The teams have split the opening two games. Arizona won Friday’s opener 3-2 before Washington responded with a 5-3 victory Saturday. CJ Abrams led the Nationals by going 3-for-4 with a double, a home run and three RBIs, helping Washington erase an early deficit and even the series.
Saturday’s loss ended Arizona’s four-game winning streak, but the Diamondbacks remain the preferred side in the rubber match. Mikolas has struggled to prevent runs throughout the season, while Arizona possesses the deeper lineup and a dependable late-inning bullpen.
The Diamondbacks are the preferred moneyline selection.
Arizona Diamondbacks Analysis
Arizona must respond after missing an opportunity to clinch the series Saturday.
The Diamondbacks established an early 2-0 advantage behind a two-run single from Gabriel Moreno, but rookie starter Mitch Bratt struggled with command and allowed Washington to take control. Bratt surrendered five runs on seven hits and five walks across five innings.
Sunday’s starter presents a different type of uncertainty.
Drake has pitched only a limited number of major-league innings, but his 1.80 ERA provides an encouraging early indication. Arizona does not need him to dominate for seven innings. Four or five competitive frames with limited damage could be enough if the Diamondbacks capitalize on their matchup against Mikolas.
Arizona’s lineup should have several opportunities to score. Mikolas enters with a 5.60 ERA and has not consistently missed bats, recording only 51 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks should remain patient, force him into hitter-friendly counts and avoid giving away quick outs.
Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte provide Arizona with speed, power and on-base ability near the top of the order. Moreno has also delivered important production throughout the series, including Friday’s winning sacrifice fly and Saturday’s two-run single.
The Diamondbacks should focus on producing sustained pressure rather than depending entirely on home runs. Mikolas can survive when opponents become overly aggressive and allow him to generate early-count contact. Arizona must make him work from the stretch and force Washington into its bullpen before the later innings.
Washington Nationals Analysis
Washington enters Sunday with confidence after an impressive comeback victory.
Abrams was the difference Saturday. He tied the game with a two-run double, later added his 25th home run and continued a breakout season in which he has become one of the National League’s most productive hitters. He entered Sunday batting .293 with a .921 OPS and a league-leading 79 RBIs.
Arizona must avoid allowing runners to reach ahead of him. Drake’s limited experience could become a concern if he issues walks or struggles to control the running game.
The Nationals also received an important performance from Foster Griffin on Saturday. Griffin worked 6⅔ innings before Eddy Yean and Clayton Beeter combined for perfect relief work. Washington’s bullpen therefore enters the finale with confidence after protecting the lead cleanly.
Mikolas remains the largest concern.
The veteran right-hander has extensive experience, but his 5.60 ERA makes Washington difficult to trust against a balanced Arizona lineup. He must avoid leaving pitches over the middle of the plate and prevent Carroll, Marte and Moreno from creating early traffic.
Washington has also struggled at Nationals Park, entering the weekend with a 20-31 home record. That inconsistency reduces some of the advantage normally associated with playing the series finale at home.
Why We Like This Pick
Arizona holds the clearer offensive advantage and receives the more favourable matchup against the opposing starter.
Drake’s limited major-league track record creates uncertainty, but Mikolas’ season-long struggles are more established. His 5.60 ERA gives the Diamondbacks a realistic opportunity to build an early lead before turning the game over to their bullpen.
The Nationals are dangerous through Abrams and have shown that they can respond after falling behind. Washington also enters with momentum after Saturday’s victory.
However, Arizona remains the deeper offensive team and has played strong baseball recently. Before Saturday’s loss, the Diamondbacks had won four straight and six of seven. Friday’s victory also showed that Arizona can win a close road game through timely hitting and dependable late-inning pitching.
The moneyline is the preferred approach because Drake’s inexperience could keep Washington competitive.
Final Prediction
Expect Washington to create some early pressure through Abrams and the top of its lineup, but Drake should provide enough competitive innings to keep Arizona within control.
The Diamondbacks should generate consistent scoring opportunities against Mikolas and gradually establish an advantage. Arizona’s deeper lineup and stronger overall run-production outlook should decide the rubber match.
Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 6, Washington Nationals 4
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline