Match Preview
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates complete their three-game National League Central series at PNC Park on Sunday, July 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET.
Chicago is expected to start right-hander Jameson Taillon, while Pittsburgh counters with right-hander Braxton Ashcraft. Taillon enters with a 2-5 record and a 5.38 ERA, while Ashcraft carries a 9-4 record, a 3.95 ERA and 130 strikeouts into the series finale.
The Cubs have already won the opening two games of the series. Chicago earned a 3-2 extra-inning victory Friday before exploding for an 11-0 win Saturday. Pete Crow-Armstrong led Saturday’s rout by going 4-for-5 with a home run, two doubles, three RBIs, three runs scored and a stolen base.
Chicago improved to 59-45 with Saturday’s victory and has now won three consecutive games. Pittsburgh enters Sunday at 53-52 and will be attempting to avoid a home sweep.
Ashcraft owns the stronger season-long pitching numbers, but the Cubs have the deeper lineup, better recent form and considerably more offensive momentum. Chicago is the preferred moneyline selection.
Chicago Cubs Analysis
The Cubs enter Sunday playing some of their best baseball of the season.
Chicago has won the first two games of this series in completely different ways. Friday required strong defence, timely hitting and extra-inning execution. Saturday was a complete offensive takeover in which the Cubs recorded 16 hits and scored 11 unanswered runs.
Crow-Armstrong has been central to Chicago’s success. His four-hit performance Saturday included his 23rd home run of the season, and he continues to contribute through power, speed and defence. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Miguel Amaya also produced in the blowout victory.
That lineup depth gives Chicago a strong chance of succeeding even against Ashcraft.
The Pirates right-hander has produced a respectable season and possesses strong strikeout numbers, so the Cubs cannot assume another offensive explosion is coming. Chicago must remain patient, avoid chasing pitches outside the strike zone and force Ashcraft to work with runners on base.
Taillon represents the primary concern for the Cubs.
His 5.38 ERA suggests he has struggled to prevent damaging contact and extended innings. Chicago does not need him to dominate, but it does need five competitive innings without allowing Pittsburgh to establish a large early lead.
Taillon should also benefit from a relatively rested bullpen. Javier Assad covered the final three innings of Saturday’s blowout, allowing Chicago to preserve several of its preferred late-game relievers.
Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
Pittsburgh enters Sunday searching for an immediate offensive response.
The Pirates were completely shut down Saturday, managing only four hits and no runs. They remained scoreless through all nine innings and offered almost no sustained pressure after Chicago broke the game open in the middle innings.
Ashcraft gives Pittsburgh a legitimate chance to avoid the sweep.
His 9-4 record, 3.95 ERA and 130 strikeouts make him the more dependable starter based on season-long numbers. He has enough swing-and-miss ability to control Chicago if he establishes command early.
The Pirates must prevent another extended inning. Saturday’s game remained scoreless through four innings before the Cubs scored four times in the fifth and five more in the sixth. Once Pittsburgh fell behind, the game quickly became uncompetitive.
Offensively, the Pirates should have a better matchup against Taillon than they had against Shota Imanaga. Taillon’s elevated ERA gives Pittsburgh a realistic opportunity to score, particularly if it forces him into deep counts and takes advantage of runners in scoring position.
The Pirates’ problem is consistency. Even if Ashcraft pitches well, Pittsburgh must produce enough offence to support him. The team managed only two runs Friday and none Saturday, giving it just two total runs through the first two games of the series.
Why We Like This Pick
Pittsburgh owns the starting-pitching advantage, but Chicago holds the edge everywhere else.
The Cubs have won both games of the series, are playing with confidence and have received production throughout the lineup. They have shown they can win a low-scoring contest or take control through a major offensive performance.
Ashcraft makes this a riskier pick than Chicago’s recent results might suggest. His strikeout ability could keep Pittsburgh competitive and prevent the Cubs from creating another large early lead.
However, Chicago’s lineup is substantially deeper, and the Pirates have scored only twice through the first 19 innings of the series. Taillon does not need to pitch like an ace if the Cubs continue producing offensively and their bullpen remains dependable.
The moneyline is preferred over the run line because Ashcraft is capable of keeping the final margin close.
Final Prediction
Expect Pittsburgh to perform much better than it did Saturday, with Ashcraft limiting Chicago during the opening innings.
The Cubs should still create more consistent scoring opportunities over nine innings. Chicago’s lineup depth and stronger recent execution should become decisive once the game reaches the bullpens.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline