Match Preview
The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game interleague series Friday, July 31, at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. Eastern, with Will Warren expected to start for New York against Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga.
The Yankees enter the series with the stronger overall record, but Chicago has an appealing opportunity to earn an upset at home. Wrigley Field can be a difficult environment for visiting teams, and the Cubs will send one of their more dependable starters to the mound.
Imanaga enters Friday with a 7–8 record, a 3.72 ERA and 113 strikeouts. Warren carries a 7–5 record, but his 4.41 ERA suggests the Cubs should receive opportunities to create traffic and score during the early or middle innings.
New York possesses the more dangerous lineup, particularly with Aaron Judge capable of changing the game with one swing. However, Chicago has the pitching matchup, home-field advantage and enough offensive depth to take the opening game of the series.
New York Yankees Analysis
Will Warren has delivered a respectable season for the Yankees, recording seven victories and more than 100 strikeouts. His ability to miss bats gives him a chance to work out of difficult situations without depending entirely on his defence.
The concern is his 4.41 ERA. Warren has allowed enough consistent contact and scoring damage to make him vulnerable against a Cubs lineup that can work counts, draw walks and produce power throughout the order.
Warren must establish his fastball early and avoid falling behind Chicago’s most dangerous hitters. Wrigley Field can become especially challenging when the wind is carrying toward the outfield, so locating pitches near the edges of the strike zone will be important.
The Yankees’ greatest advantage is their offensive ceiling. Judge remains the centre of the lineup and can punish almost any mistake, while New York has enough surrounding power to turn one productive inning into a sizeable lead.
Their challenge will be facing Imanaga. New York’s right-handed hitters may have the platoon advantage, but Imanaga’s command and ability to change speeds can prevent powerful lineups from sitting on one pitch.
The Yankees cannot rely entirely on home runs. They need patient at-bats, baserunners ahead of Judge and consistent pressure that forces Imanaga to work from the stretch.
Chicago Cubs Analysis
Shota Imanaga provides the Cubs with their clearest advantage Friday. His 3.72 ERA is considerably better than Warren’s mark, and his 113 strikeouts show that he can finish at-bats when hitters reach two strikes.
Imanaga’s biggest responsibility will be controlling Judge and limiting the damage created by New York’s right-handed power. He does not need to completely shut down the Yankees, but he must avoid walks and prevent one mistake from becoming a three-run homer.
The left-hander has also held the current Yankees roster to limited production in a small sample. Baseball Savant lists a .211 batting average and .288 weighted on-base average for New York’s current hitters against him, although the sample includes only 21 plate appearances and should not be treated as decisive.
Chicago’s offence should have opportunities against Warren. The Cubs must remain selective rather than chasing his strikeout pitches outside the zone. Reaching base through walks and singles could force Warren to throw from the stretch and expose his season-long inconsistency.
Ian Happ and the middle of the Cubs order give Chicago enough power to capitalize when Warren falls behind. The Cubs do not need an explosive performance; four or five runs could be enough if Imanaga delivers a quality start.
Playing at Wrigley Field also gives Chicago an important boost. The Cubs can establish early momentum in front of their home crowd and force the Yankees to play from behind.
Why We Like This Pick
The Yankees are the stronger team overall, but this selection is based on the individual matchup rather than the season-long records.
Imanaga has the better ERA and offers Chicago a dependable starting option against New York’s dangerous lineup. Warren has produced solid strikeout numbers, but his 4.41 ERA creates a realistic opening for the Cubs’ offence.
Chicago also has home-field advantage and should be highly motivated to begin the series positively. The Cubs can win by remaining patient against Warren, creating early traffic and forcing the Yankees to use their bullpen before the late innings.
New York will remain dangerous throughout the game, especially with Judge in the lineup. However, Imanaga’s command and Chicago’s favourable offensive matchup make the Cubs an appealing home underdog.
Final Prediction
Imanaga limits New York’s power and works through six competitive innings. Chicago creates several scoring opportunities against Warren, takes the lead during the middle innings and receives enough relief pitching to protect it.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, New York Yankees 3
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline