Match Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds continue their divisional series Friday, July 31, at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. Eastern, with Paul Skenes expected to start for Pittsburgh against Hunter Greene for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati took Thursday’s opener 3–2 on a walk-off fielder’s choice, but Pittsburgh has an excellent opportunity to answer immediately with its ace on the mound.
Skenes enters Friday with a 9–9 record, a 3.65 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and 149 strikeouts. Greene has electric ability, but his 2–2 record and 7.06 ERA indicate that his return to the rotation has included significant inconsistency.
The Reds have home-field advantage and enough power to make Skenes work. However, Pittsburgh holds the more dependable starting-pitching position and should receive opportunities against Greene. We are backing the Pirates to even the series.
Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
Paul Skenes gives Pittsburgh its strongest possible response after Thursday’s narrow defeat. His combination of velocity, movement and strikeout ability allows him to control games without requiring perfect defensive support.
Skenes has recorded 149 strikeouts while maintaining a 1.06 WHIP, demonstrating how effectively he has limited baserunners. That will be particularly important at Great American Ball Park, where one walk ahead of a home run can quickly change the game.
The right-hander’s priority should be controlling Cincinnati’s power and preventing the top of the order from creating immediate pressure. The Reds have several hitters capable of producing extra-base damage, but Skenes can neutralize that strength by working ahead and forcing them to chase his secondary pitches.
Pittsburgh’s offence receives an appealing matchup against Greene. The Cincinnati starter possesses elite raw stuff and can dominate when his command is sharp, but his 7.06 ERA suggests opposing lineups have consistently found ways to generate damage.
The Pirates must avoid becoming overly aggressive against Greene’s velocity. Their best approach is to extend at-bats, force him to throw strikes and capitalize when he falls behind in the count.
Pittsburgh scored only twice Thursday, but the Pirates were competitive until the final play. A few better at-bats with runners on base could produce a very different result Friday.
Cincinnati Reds Analysis
Hunter Greene is the biggest variable in this matchup. His fastball and strikeout ability give him the talent to shut down almost any lineup, but his season numbers have not shown consistent run prevention.
Greene enters with a 7.06 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through his current body of work. Those numbers create concern against a Pittsburgh lineup that should be motivated after losing the opener in walk-off fashion.
For Cincinnati to win, Greene must limit walks and avoid long innings. Pittsburgh may not possess the league’s deepest offence, but giving the Pirates free baserunners would place unnecessary pressure on both Greene and the Reds bullpen.
Cincinnati’s lineup also faces one of its most difficult assignments of the series. The Reds cannot expect to produce constant traffic against Skenes, so they must capitalize when opportunities appear.
Their best path is forcing Skenes to work deep counts and elevating his pitch total. Even if Cincinnati does not score early, reaching Pittsburgh’s bullpen before the seventh inning would improve its chances.
The Reds showed resilience Thursday and will enter Friday with confidence. However, repeating that result against Pittsburgh’s ace is a much more difficult challenge.
Why We Like This Pick
The starting-pitching advantage is the primary reason to back Pittsburgh.
Skenes has been the more reliable pitcher, carrying a substantially lower ERA and WHIP while recording 149 strikeouts. Greene may possess comparable pure talent, but his current results make him difficult to trust against a motivated Pirates lineup.
Pittsburgh also enters an appealing bounce-back position. The Pirates lost Thursday’s game by one run on a walk-off play, meaning the overall matchup was extremely competitive.
The Pirates do not need to produce a huge offensive performance. If Skenes holds Cincinnati to two or three runs, Pittsburgh should have enough opportunities against Greene and the Reds bullpen to take control.
Great American Ball Park introduces some risk because Cincinnati’s power can change the score quickly. Still, Skenes is precisely the type of pitcher capable of limiting that threat through strikeouts and weak contact.
Final Prediction
Skenes delivers a strong road start and prevents Cincinnati from building sustained offensive pressure. Pittsburgh works Greene’s pitch count, produces a decisive rally during the middle innings and protects the lead late.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 5, Cincinnati Reds 2
Official FirePicksHQ Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline